Analysts: Number of illegal crypto transactions to 2024 year will be reduced by 30% – Bits Media

The development of cryptocurrencies will lead to the transparency of blockchains and the flow of illegal transactions into traditional payment services, experts from the analytical company Gartner predict.

In a Gartner forecast of 2022 year entitled “Preparing for digital disruption in основе блокчейна» утверждается, that the number of illegal cryptocurrency transactions will significantly decrease in two years:

"TO 2024 year, the number of successful cryptocurrency thefts and ransomware payments will decrease by 30% due to the inability of criminals to move and spend funds off-chain".

The authors of the document draw conclusions based on their observations of trends, which are now successfully developing in the cryptocurrency market. Blockchains are more transparent than traditional payment services and allow more effective detection of illegal transactions, The authors explain their logic.

IN 2022 year for about 23 platforms will have to be about 99% market capitalization of all blockchains on the planet. That is, effective anti-fraud systems must be integrated from all 23 completely transparent platforms, and not with thousands of corporate systems and payment networks.

The number of analytical companies is growing, such as Chainalysis, CipherTrace (part of Mastercard), Elementus or TRM Labs, who provide data, allowing law enforcement agencies to identify the hackers responsible for cyberattacks, block and confiscate stolen assets. Increasingly, exchanges and DeFi protocols are using software to prevent fraud, Gartner analysts say.

World governments have begun to pay more attention to cases of cryptocurrency fraud. Experts note: transactions, which pass through cryptocurrency service providers (VASP), practically cannot be illegal - unlike transactions, that go through their own wallets or not through VASP.

The authors of the forecast emphasize: in the future, it will be easier for criminals to launder money through numerous opaque, outdated payment services, than through transparent and relatively few well-secured blockchains.

According to the analytical company Chainalysis, in 2020 year share of cryptocurrency transactions, related to illegal activities, decreased noticeably - from 2,1% in 2019 year before 0,34% in 2020 year. At the end of 2021, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) posted a report, refuting information, what 46% Bitcoin transaction volumes are linked to illegal activities. Analytics company Elliptic and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (WITH) in 2019 researched more than 200 000 transactions in the Bitcoin network for their connection with criminal activity. And they did
conclusion, что этим признакам отвечают всего 2% transactions.