CMAKP: “The digital ruble will lead to an outflow 9 trillion rubles from banks" – Bits Media

According to estimates by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, the introduction of the digital ruble may trigger an outflow of up to 9 trillion rubles from commercial banks by the end 2024 of the year.

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Vedomosti reported. Center analysts macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (CMAKP) suggest, what of this amount 5 trillion rubles will account for the accounts of individuals and 4 trillion rubles - to the accounts of organizations.

TsMAKP experts explained, that such a scenario will become possible, if the digital ruble is implemented quickly, and money will be transferred to digital rubles without restrictions. To compensate for the outflow of funds from banks, The Bank of Russia must provide liquidity to commercial banks, believes TsMAKP. Otherwise, this may have negative consequences for the Russian banking system - due to the lack of available funds, banks risk stopping their activities.

To solve the problem of lack of liquidity, banks will be forced to sell government securities and highly liquid foreign assets. According to TsMAKP estimates, the scale of their sales will be about 2 trillion rubles and 500 billion rubles respectively. In turn, this will inevitably provoke a fall in the prices of federal loan bonds (OFZ) and will lead to a tightening of the entire monetary policy of the country.

TsMAKP analysts explained, that due to a lack of liquidity, the loan portfolio of banks will decrease by approximately 5%. It means, что банки станут выдавать меньше кредитов. Primarily, это отразится на организациях, так как в основном они привлекают средства до востребования, которые и перетекут в цифровой рубль. As a result of a reduction in loans issued and an increase in interest rates, Bank profits may decline by 10%. TsMAKP believes, what, if the Bank of Russia lowers the key rate, this will protect banks from possible losses, since market interest rates will remain the same, what they were like before the introduction of the digital ruble.

Managing Director of the NKR rating agency Stanislav Volkov believes, that the central bank can reduce the risk of a sharp outflow of money into the digital ruble, limiting the amount of transfer to the digital ruble wallet, and then gradually loosening the established limits. Anatoly Perfilyev, junior director for banking ratings at Expert RA, also commented on the introduction of the digital ruble. According to him, it will be a long process, поскольку из-за технических сложностей поначалу могут возникать перебои с проведением платежей в цифровых рублях. Already as the digital currency of the Bank of Russia develops, commercial banks may experience an outflow of funds, but it won't be critical, explained Perfilyev.

The head of the treasury of VTB Bank, Andrei Prudnikov, also calculated an estimate of the outflow of money from banks to 9 trillion rubles greatly inflated. He considers, that the transition to a digital ruble will be due to a decrease in demand only for cash. Besides, banks will develop their own services for non-cash payments and will begin to use the central bank’s digital currency, being part of a two-tier retail model, Prudnikov said.

According to the Strategy for the Development of the Russian Financial Market, published by the RF Ministry of Finance, digital ruble will be launched before 2030 of the year. At the end of last year, Bank of Russia Chairman Elvira Nabiullina assured, that the digital ruble will not affect interest rates on loans and deposits in Russia and will not lead to an outflow of money from banks, as it will be implemented gradually.