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The situation in the market challenges the miners historically the first cryptocurrency. What difficulties do they have to face in 2023 year and who has opportunities for good earnings?
Although miners Bitcoin, Unlike miners of many altcoins, differ in optimistic forecasts for the first cryptocurrency (which is confirmed by the long -term growth of indicators of aggregate computing power in the network), in 2022 a year all of them encountered a number of serious obstacles. Strategy "Growth at any cost", which is possible only with constant infusion of capital, In particular, in the purchase of new BTC production devices, used by many enthusiasts and in 2021, and c 2022 year, but led to a series of failures and bankruptcies during a protracted cryptosim.
IN 2023 a year there are small positive changes in the profitability of miners in recalculation to the hash: In recent months, the dynamics of growth of the BTC course is higher, than the growth of a common hash. Himself
Hesh-price index in annual terms decreased:
Source: hashrateindex.com
However, the situation in the market is still uncertain. Experts suggest, that with the scenarios, when bitcoin will noticeably rise in 2023, Investors will begin to invest in mass mining enterprises en masse. Then the total hashrate will grow, And the income in recalculation to the hash-led will begin to gradually decline. Question, exciting miners - how like the Bitcoin rally is likely and how long it will take to inflict new investments? Such, so that the hash price return to conditional equilibrium(was not overbidden and was not underestimated).
Market experts note, that only those of the miners, who generates profit in the current "equilibrium hash-price", First of all, they are interested in long -term investors. While the hash price was formed at the level from 6 to 8 cents for Terahesh per day, Many miners continue to generate insufficient profit and do not even cover their costs.
In such conditions, many creditors reviews existing agreements with mining companies for less profitable for themselves, As in the case of Greenidge Generation. Explaining their motivation is quite simple - to refuse to recover debts is often better now, than to bankrupt the company, Which in the future may be extremely profitable.
It is worth noting the strategy of ASIC manufacturers in conditions of cryptosim: if the final product cannot be sold at the market at the moment, They unfold these capacities for "self -Maining" (self-mining), Assuming, that in the future costs will pay off.
Indicators in stock markets confirm all of the above data. Many public miners are currently trading in 90% below their peak values, And this business is evaluated extremely low. Which is indirectly confirmed by a decrease in prices for ASIC equipment. During the year, prices decreased by more than five times:
Source: hashrateindex.com
Nonetheless, Promotions of cryptocurrency companies remain very volatile and have a strong correlation with the price of BTC. In such difficult conditions, many began to call the crypto industry of the "non -investigated industry" (Where no one wants to invest in money). Experts note, that this approach does not take into account the entire specifics of the business, related to mining. For a better understanding of the situation, They offer to distinguish between business models inside the industry.
On the one side, We have miners, which have appropriate energy resources, as well as the right to them and to the production of energy (There is access to the necessary sources). Such players are still not the most significant market participants, since the monetization model involves mining to a lesser extent. On the other side, if bitcoin still gets wider distribution and regulatory support, It is worth expecting the arrival of large energy players in the mining industry, which will seriously affect the hash.
On the other, There are miners, with which, On the one side, There are certain infrastructure assets (equipment, financial, specialists and so on), But there is no one, which would allow to generate electricity on its own. This is a significant share of miners, and their possible risks above, than competitors. It is likely, that only a few of these enthusiasts will be able to provide investors with the minimum necessary profit. Many participants in this market segment can stay with nothing, Even if they get some positive result from a short-term increase in the hash. Their activities are less stable, since they strongly depend on the choice of the location of the capacities, concluding contracts with energy companies and agreements with creditors.
Finally, Participants are presented on the market, which are associated with "hard -to -minute" energy, What makes them really attractive for long -term investors. Most often these are peculiar startups and enterprises, which are at the early stage of their development. They monetize non -standard electricity sources like methane with garbage dumps or are breaking partnerships with suppliers of renewable "green energy", concluding contracts for the future. Their main risks are the problem of business scaling, Since there are serious restrictions on the volume of supplied electricity. On the other side, if there is a cheap energy supplier on the market, obtained as a result of processing, it is beneficial for the miner to cooperate with him on an ongoing basis, and for an investor to invest in such a stable enterprise.
Experts are waiting, which, along with the increase in popularity of such a niche, we can expect a significant increase in cases, when Bitcoin mining will be introduced into the chain of related industries. These are companies, which provide high energy consumption and where it is possible to monetize the heat (warm), received from mining, for other purposes. Or monetize energy, which would otherwise be wasted.
This is indirectly supported by the current level of the Bitcoin energy consumption index.:
Source: hashrateindex.com
It can be noted, that the current estimated level of energy consumption is approximately similar to similar indicators 2021 and 2022 years. In general, miners are increasingly inclined to focus on cheap alternative or so-called secondary electricity, minimizing costs, which is especially important during a bearish cycle. Also, the low increase in energy consumption is associated with the use of more energy-efficient equipment.
The carbon credit market is now in its infancy, in the future it will most likely turn out to be more profitable if the BTC rate rises. The main risk for miners in this scenario is possible regulatory restrictions, related to the “green trend” and ecology. Already, regulators and officials are raising the issue of distinguishing such a concept as “industrial mining” (sometimes "licensed mining"), taking into account special tariffs for market players. Such initiatives are being taken, including in Russia and Kazakhstan. Interesting, that in the Russian Federation, the capacity for cryptocurrency mining continues to grow.
These are the arguments in favor of deregulation - we make money by processing electricity, which could have been wasted. There may also be opponents of the idea, which, vice versa, will argue prohibitions and restrictions allegedly from the position of high harm to the environment, which carries Bitcoin mining as such.
For miners, who already have access to various energy sources and suitable computing power, according to experts, it's time for possible growth. Of course, he will require capital, therefore, in certain cases, a small amount of borrowed funds is acceptable. Naturally, miners will look for conditions with the maximum period and the most favorable percentage ratio. Lenders, in turn, are looking for maximum collateral, because in crypto winter conditions, in the absence of cash flow from the miner, creditors are interested in compensation for losses in another material form.
Total: miners in 2023 year will face new requests from creditors regarding financial security for enterprises. In some ways, this is reminiscent of the practice of public confirmation of collateral by centralized crypto exchanges after the collapse of FTX and the bankruptcy of a number of other large players.
This material and information in it is not an individual or other other investment recommendation. The view of the editorial office may not coincide with the opinions of the author, analytical portals and experts.