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Bitcoin is ready to beat records again, And in recent weeks, optimism has prevailed on the market. Whether growth will continue and what awaits the price of the main cryptocurrencies in 2023 year?
Start 2023 years have pleased cryptocurrency traders. After serious cryptosim, continued more of the year, The long -awaited thaw came. Despite bankruptcy in the industry and periodic attacks of regulators, Bitcoin has grown almost doubled from the November minimums, And the majority of cryptocurrencies followed him. However, after the second jerk up, the start of the start of the banking crisis in the USA and Europe, Stagnation began. For two weeks now the cryptocurrency market fluctuates in a narrow range, Waiting for the development of events. That this is a temporary break, And we are at the beginning of the new bull market? Or the rise that is currently taking place is only a correction before a new fall?
Where will Bitcoin go
Experienced traders give simple, but useful in any circumstances advice:
If you think, that the market has made a huge jerk and the price will fly to the moon right now (or will break through the bottom and start drilling), Switch to the long -term schedule and calm down.
Now the moment has come, When to follow this advice. Compare the schedules of bitcoin on the most running speculators of time candles and the usual daytime investors.
So, An hourly schedule with 10 by 30 Martha. Growth on $10 000 for 10 Days are impressive. They inspired a venture investor and former technical director of the Coinbase Exchange Baladzhi Srinivasan (Balaji Srinivasan), promising $1 000 000 for bitcoin in three months. More balanced predictors promise only $100 000 By the end of the year, And the pessimists (Or realists) do not expect a quick growth. In confirmation of their words, growth has changed the next creeping correction. And yet there really is reasons for optimism.
Let's look at daytime candles from the beginning 2022 of the year. The entire stunning growth of the last four months has not repelled and half of the losses for the previous year, Rising only to June levels 2022 of the year.
According to Agent Malder, Truth is always somewhere nearby. And according to the unknown ancient sage, She is usually in the middle. No, Not a sandwich, and positive and negative factors. This also applies to financial markets. Take the same bitcoin schedule, but in 4-hour candles and only for a turning point, when the fall was replaced by growth.
maybe, This schedule says little to beginners. This design, remotely reminiscent of the classic figure of Texanalysis "Head and shoulders" in an inverted form, or a detailed fractal formation "Stear", Very often found in cryptocurrency graphs. Similar figures were formed on the schedule of bitcoin in 2014, 2017 and 2020 years during a trend fracture.
Then, also after several sharp falls, careful growth began, accompanied by long corrections. The “preparatory stage” can occupy a year and more, and only then the all -shifting grill of growth is followed, ending with the next historical maximum. And behind her, the next collapse is inevitably followed, which, but, does not reach the minimums of the beginning of the previous "bull" wave.
A similar picture has been repeated three times already, So, It can repeat it again. But, If you follow the chronology of past events, The accumulation phase is just beginning. After all, less than five months have passed from annual minimums. So, new corrections and prolonged stagnation can be expected. Especially, that now storms all markets and the entire world economy, and cryptocurrencies are not so independent yet, to grow against everything.
To a retreat from the classical rules of technical and wave analysis, based on specific minimums and maximums, In cryptocurrencies due to high volatility and immaturity of the market, the support for “round” numbers more often prevails. Also now, The price acts as a level of resistance $30 000, when approaching which growth has slowed significantly. And the support is the line in $20 000, from which the price of bitcoin pushed away in early March. To the delight of fans of Texanalysis, At this time, the 200-day SMA took place there at this time.
Yes, The upper border is now closer and, Seems, Another effort - and bitcoin will again rush into space. But while there is not enough strength for this, and before continuing growth, a more significant correction suggests itself, which will enable optimists to buy BTC at a lower price. Any major event can serve as a reason for such a correction, not even directly related to cryptocurrencies.
The way out of the current sidewoman is important, Since he, perhaps, will determine the Bitcoin trend for this year. If BTC manages to gain a foothold above $30 000, "Bulls" will receive a dose of optimism. And a serious rollback from the current position will delay the continuation of growth for months.
Factors influencing the cryptocurrency market in April 2023 of the year
Factors shaping the price, as internal, and external, divided into short-term and long-term. If the former cause sudden movements, occurring over several days and even hours, then the latter form trends for years to come and are usually not taken into account by speculators. Start 2023 year became the point of concentration of the most controversial factors, from high-profile industry events to changing global political landscapes.
Banking crisis and rising rates with high inflation
The most original experts believe, that the sharp rise in Bitcoin in March is associated with the bankruptcy of several banks, wholly or partially related to the cryptocurrency industry: Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank и Silicon Valley Bank. However, the crisis quickly spread beyond the industry and spread to traditional institutions. One of the oldest banks in the world, the Swiss Credit Suisse, lost stability and was sold for pennies., Doubts are being raised about the sustainability of Deutsche Bank and several French banks..
Besides, Several more cryptocurrency players have gone bankrupt in recent months: lending startup BlockFi, Celsius lending platform, mining company Argo Blockchain, bankchain developer Marco Polo and several other smaller projects. Other companies have so far managed to limit themselves to staff reductions, but they remain at risk.
Previously, the collapse of cryptocurrency banks and companies was presented as the reason for the collapse, now bankruptcies are presented as a reason for growth. Well then, every expert has the right to his original opinion. However, the collapse of individual companies is just the tip of the iceberg, and as the crisis deepens, bigger fish may follow. Now regulators are at a crossroads between slowing down the economy and fighting inflation, which is declining much more slowly than predicted.
Despite all this, the Fed continues to raise rates, offering distressed banks selective rescue through targeted liquidity injections, that is, the continuation of the dollar issue, but more careful. There has never been such a situation in the global economy, therefore, a nervous reaction from the markets to any negativity is expected. And cryptocurrencies are perceived as a refuge from the global crisis by a very small proportion of investors.
The stablecoin crisis and the rhetoric of regulators
First quarter 2023 year became a real test for the largest stablecoins, alternately losing their peg to the dollar and part of their capitalization. Started with BUSD, which lost its position as a reliable asset after accusations from American regulators and a ban on the issuance of tokens in the USA. Its exchange rate against the dollar briefly fell by more than 10%.
After this, the stablecoin began to disappear from the largest exchanges, including "decentralized", and even Binance itself abandoned its asset in its own investor protection fund. At the beginning of April, only BUSD capitalization remained $7,5 billion, that is, less than a third of the maximum values in autumn 2022 of the year.
Closer rival Binance also has no reason to celebrate. USDC is next. In the first days after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the issuer of the token lost more than $3 billion, and the stablecoin itself — 11% value, but the troubles didn't end there. At the end of March, USDC lost even more $2 billion per week. In this way, Even the most regulated and trusted of dollar tokens has followed BUSD down a slippery slope.. In the second week of March alone, Circle was forced to repay more than 6 billion USDC, and in just March, USDC capitalization fell by $12 billion, that is, more than 25%.
Of the three largest stablecoins, only USDT has not suffered significantly so far.. However, his turn will come, what they are clearly hinting at, eg, “exposing” articles from major American publications.
Indiscriminate waving of the regulatory cudgel and increasing attacks from US officials have spooked the cryptocurrency business. Even the leading industry media finally noticed this. Major exchanges Coinbase and Bittrex, following Binance and many others, are planning to leave the US, especially after SEC statements about lack of confidence in the market and the threat of recognition of most crypto assets as securities, with the corresponding disclosure obligations of issuers.
maybe, statements by officials do not always express only personal opinion, and gradually create the background for the widespread and mandatory introduction of state digital currencies, ensuring truly complete control of the Central Bank over monetary circulation.
Exacerbation of geopolitical conflict
The situation in the world continues to heat up - NATO countries are expanding the supply of weapons to Ukraine and the production of ammunition, Russia is also increasing its military production. It means, that the end of the “hot war” is not visible on the horizon. The “Taiwan issue” has not been resolved either., The US is gathering allies to create an anti-Chinese alliance in the Pacific region AUKUS.
The “Eastern Bloc” is also not asleep, although there are still no established political unions in it. Xi Jinping visits Moscow to conclude a series of agreements amid an “arrest warrant” for Vladimir Putin. India plays the role of the dark horse... elephant, whom everyone wants to win over. Previously unheard of shifts are beginning in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, UAE and Türkiye improve relations with Iran and Syria. The largest Arab exporters are beginning to enter into agreements on oil supplies for yuan and other national currencies. It's slow, but is surely shaking the almost century-long dominance of the petrodollar, and in the future will increase inflationary pressure on the US dollar. What, in its turn, means asset growth, quoted in dollars. Including, cryptocurrency.
Contrary to the expectations of optimists and pessimists, The process of restructuring the global economy takes decades. The global market is more complex, than most people imagine, even those involved in stock trading. Single, narrowly focused actions mean little, even if all the media trumpets about them. The overall success or failure of the formation of a new financial and logistics system in the East is decisive. And it will take many years. Reliable alternative payment system, standardization of regulation, exchange control, quote providers, reinsurance and rating agencies are only parts of a complex mechanism, which will have to be configured almost from scratch.
How will cryptocurrencies behave in a global economic and political storm?? It's nice to indulge in unbridled optimism, but dangerous. After all, payment systems free from regulation hinder all states, regardless of their foreign and domestic policies.
Trends of TOP 10 cryptocurrencies on 2023 year
Most cryptocurrencies follow Bitcoin's price movements. However, due to the nature of each project, individual coins and tokens may move significantly ahead or behind the market. In some cases, they even go in the opposite direction - they fall on the general growth or grow on the general decline. What positive and negative factors can cause price shifts in the top 10 cryptocurrencies in 2023 year?
Ethereum (ETH)
The second cryptocurrency is approaching its long-planned trip to Shanghai: the emergence of sharding, that is, parallel confirmation of transactions in several chains. In the long term, the use of sharding will increase the scalability of the underlying Ethereum blockchain tenfold.. The Shanghai update is already activated on most test networks, but 14 March it was successfully activated on the Goerli testnet. Shanghai is scheduled to launch on the main Ethereum blockchain 12 April in the era 6209536, and there are no reasons for postponing this event.
After the successful activation of the hard fork, ETH is able to show growth ahead of the market or a slower decline in the coming months. However, against the backdrop of investor priority interest in Bitcoin and attacks on the centralization of staking in Ethereum, the factor of improving scaling and reducing commissions is relegated to the background and is not actually taken into account in the price. At first 2023 year, ETH fell in price to BTC by almost 20%. Even this can be considered a success, since other leading altcoins have generally lagged behind the flagship much further.
As part of the Shanghai activation, ETH is negatively affected by unlocking the withdrawal of ETH from staking contracts. However, the influence of this function is greatly exaggerated in the media environment. Due to protocol level restrictions, the supply of unlocked ETH to the market will be slow (no more 43 200 ETH per day) and will not be able to significantly affect the price.
Binance Coin (BNB)
The main problem with BNB is centralization. The underlying blockchain and all projects running on it depend on the Binance exchange, and her condition in the last six months can hardly be called stable. In this way, the main factors influencing the price of BNB are not technical or economic, and in purely political.
Crisis of confidence in BUSD, caused by attacks from US regulators, and a constant drop in the capitalization of the still third stablecoin, collapsed since November $23.5 billion to $7.5 billion, undermines the financial stability of the exchange, having lost almost all the “safety cushion” accumulated over five years. Even Binance itself refused to use BUSD in its own user asset protection fund. Without waiting for new attacks, Binance plans to exit the US market. However, flight does not guarantee the safety of the exchange from further persecution.
Against the backdrop of all this negativity, the BNB rate is holding up well, and yet since the end of November it has fallen to BTC by 39%. The constant burning of coins in the absence of emission still plays a plus for the BNB rate, but it cannot outweigh the numerous risks. The BNB Chain ecosystem itself does not experience any technical problems.
By sum of factors, despite the relatively low price relative to Bitcoin, BNB should be viewed with extreme caution as a long-term investment. Complete dependence on Binance makes it too risky an asset. In this case, the blow may be unexpected.
Ripple (XRP)
The most amazing achievement of Ripple is that, that this token still maintains a stable position in the top ten cryptocurrencies. Recent optimism in the SEC lawsuit has sent XRP nearly up 20%. But even if the company manages to fight off the regulator and the token will not be regulated as a security, what are the future prospects for this project??
First of all, Ripple cannot be called a full-fledged blockchain. Essentially, there is no true decentralized consensus on the network.. Its centralization is much higher, what in BNB Chain, and transactions can be frozen at any stage, and the transferred assets are confiscated. The main function of Ripple is fast international interbank transfers, that is, an analogue of SWIFT using some blockchain technologies. It was in great demand 10 years ago, but the market is changing quickly.
In short, then Ripple may become unnecessary with the development of CBDC for major fiat currencies. In that, that they will come and take their market share, there are no doubts anymore, the only question is time. Even if in the next year or two Ripple is able to gather a serious client base on the XRP Ledger, in the future the company will not be able to fight government monsters, because, unlike classic cryptocurrencies, there is too little unique in its technology.
However, the market assesses the prospects of XRP quite sensibly. Since October last year, the token has lost more than BTC 35% value, and the recent jump did little to change the overall trend. XRP may please traders in the short to medium term Over the course of this year, it, probably, will follow Bitcoin. SEC ruling will provide short-term boost, but it will not have a long-term effect.
Cardano (THERE IS)
It’s not for nothing that the Cardano project has a very controversial reputation in the cryptocurrency community.. On the one side, it retains the reputation of “the most academic blockchain” among fans, on the other hand, most users are tired of the ongoing “breakfast feeding”. Simply put, developers make too many promises, but their implementation still leaves much to be desired.
In early March, analyst Vanessa Harris (Vanessa Harris) accused the Cardano blockchain developers of centralization. In her opinion, in reality, the project is controlled by a few staking pool holders and delegates. In response, project founder Charles Hoskinson called her research the usual fear-mongering and uncertainty. (FUD).
At the moment, Cardano has prospects, but too little real use in live applications. The stability of the Cardano blockchain is also not great - two months ago it experienced another failure, and half of the nodes disconnected from the network for an unknown reason.
maybe, developers will be able to defeat the brownie that has taken up residence in the blockchain, but for now Cardano should be classified as a speculative asset, which can “shoot”, I'm going to drown. In the absence of major internal ADA events, probably, will follow the market, gradually losing value relative to Bitcoin.
Polygon (MATIC)
Polygon is the most popular Ethereum add-on.. Many projects are based on this sidechain, for which the throughput of the underlying Ethereum blockchain is insufficient. Large companies are also paying attention to it.. for instance, Siemens has issued a test package of one-year bonds for 60 million euros precisely to Polygon.
Nonetheless, The general downturn in the industry also affects successful projects. At the end of February, Polygon Labs announced a reduction to 20% employees in several offices in the USA, Canada and India. However, the company continues to operate, although the MATIC token has been since November 2022 fell to Bitcoin by 40%.
Coming soon to Polygon, as for other Ethereum competitors, Activation of the Shanghai update poses a serious threat. Improving the scaling of the underlying blockchain will primarily reduce the attractiveness of add-ons, aimed at solving this problem.
On the other side, Polygon has a qualified team and, probably, will be able to offer unique opportunities, to keep projects already running on it. Especially, that the fall in the MATIC rate is already quite large. Don’t panic and get rid of this token as soon as possible, at least until the introduction of sharding in Ethereum becomes certain. But you should not open new medium-term positions on it without an in-depth study of the project and a sound risk assessment.
Dogecoin (DOGE) и Shiba Inu (Shib)
Then, that two meme crypto assets, DOGE and SHIB, are still listed in 9th and 14th place respectively, from a market point of view can be seen as a continuation of collective madness.
What maintains the value of a coin with a cute dog for many years, except Elon Musk's tweets? What benefits do meme tokens bring and do they contain unique technologies?? Dogecoin basically copies other people's technical solutions, although for a long time it was indeed one of the most convenient means of transferring small amounts. But now many blockchains offer similar transaction confirmation speeds., and the stability of the exchange rate is stablecoins.
Blockchain developers Shibarium, to which the SHIB token is planned to be migrated, so unqualified, that they can’t even cover their tracks properly when copying someone else’s code. What breakthroughs can you expect from such a team??
Here we are dealing with an emotional phenomenon, creating self-sustaining expectations. And this could go on forever. Therefore, playing on meme crypto asset courses is a lottery, It is pointless to apply any methods of fundamental analysis to them. They have been and remain the subject of speculation.
Solana (SOL)
Solana is another typical representative of the unrealized “Bitcoin and Ethereum killers”. The creators of the project promised the highest scaling in the industry and leadership in the segment of decentralized applications. In reality, developers still cannot solve stability problems. Various failures in the functioning of the blockchain occur almost every month. therefore, unlike leading platforms on Ethereum, projects on Solana are forced to close due to lack of liquidity.
For now we can only state, that the Solana developers cannot cope with their creation and fulfill their obligations. Against the backdrop of steadily developing Ethereum, Solana looks like HEX (popular Cyrillic abbreviation, known to initiates).
The flight of projects from this blockchain began after the collapse of FTX and intensified towards the end 2022 of the year, since Sam Bankman-Fried was one of the largest investors in the development of Solana. Even after some recovery in January, The prospects for the would-be Ethereum killer remain bleak.
After the successful activation of the Shanghai update on Ethereum, dark days may come for Solana - an even greater outflow of projects to a more reliable blockchain and a concomitant collapse of the main token are possible. But even now SOL holders have nothing to rejoice at - since November 2022 year the coin fell to Bitcoin on 58%. And even with the general short-term bullish trend, SOL to Bitcoin chart looks straight down, unlike more successful competitors.